RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 16

Fri Dec 20 12:21pm ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Rush is worth a look Week 16

We have just three weeks left in the regular season. With playoff seeding coming to the forefront, there is also money to still be won in DFS. Let’s highlight some of the top players to target for your lineups for Week 16, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Cooper Rush, DAL vs. TB ($5,200): This could be a good week to save some of your budget at the quarterback spot. Rush hasn’t exactly been racking up passing yards, but he does have at least two touchdown passes in three of his last four games. That’s noteworthy because he will be facing a Buccaneers team that is tied for the seventh-most touchdown passes allowed in the league.

Aidan O’Connell, LV vs. JAX ($5,100): O’Connell is poised to return after sitting out last week with a knee injury. That’s good news as we continue to try and attack the Jaguars throughout the season. Their defense has been dreadful. They are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed and have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league. O’Connell could provide significant value.

Player to Avoid

Brock Purdy, SF at MIA ($6,300): Purdy has been the victim of some bad weather games lately. He threw for just 94 yards in snowy conditions against the Bills in Week 13, then rain contributed to him throwing for just 142 yards against the Rams last week. Even when conditions have been on his side, Purdy has not been overly productive. He only has four games this season with more than one touchdown pass. That puts him in a tough spot against a Dolphins team that has allowed just 16 passing touchdowns all season.

Running Backs

James Conner, ARI at CAR ($7,100): Conner steamrolled the Patriots last week, turning 16 carries into 110 yards and two touchdowns. That marked his fifth game of the season with at least 100 rushing yards. He also caught five passes for 28 yards, marking his sixth straight game with at least three receptions. The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, leaving Conner with tremendous upside.

Bucky Irving, TB at DAL ($6,400): While playing through some injury issues, Irving still racked up 117 yards on 15 carries against the Chargers last week. He has posted at least 73 rushing yards in four of his last five games, also totaling three touchdowns during that span. His increased workload down the stretch makes him a great option against a Cowboys team that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game in the league.

Player to Avoid

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at BUF ($5,900): With the Patriots’ offense scuffling, Stevenson has not scored a touchdown since Week 9. He also hasn’t topped 74 rushing yards in a game since Week 5. The Bills are the vastly superior team here, so they could race out to a big lead early. If that were to happen, the Patriots would likely need to throw a lot in the second half to try and play catchup. Stevenson already doesn’t carry much upside, but with the potential for the game script to work against him, he’s not someone to consider in DFS.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, NYJ vs. LAR ($7,100): Adams was in this column last week and came through with 12 receptions for 198 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars. It was a layup of a matchup for him, but at least he made the most of it. He has posted at least 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games and has at least one touchdown in three straight games. The Rams have allowed the third-most yards per target to wide receivers in the league, so expect Adams to have a high floor again.

Adam Thielen, CAR vs. ARI ($5,600): Thielen received seven targets against the Cowboys last week, which he turned into five receptions for 51 yards. Prior to that, he had received at least 10 targets in back-to-back games. With Xavier Legette (hip) likely out, Thielen should at least challenge for double-digit targets again. That might make him too good to pass up at his cheaper salary.

Player to Avoid

Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. SF ($6,900): After finally putting together a good performance against the Jets in Week 14, Hill struggled last week with just two catches for 36 yards against the Texans. He only has two games with at least 100 receiving yards all season. What’s even worse is that he has recorded seven games with fewer than 50 receiving yards. Adams has been more reliable and only has a slightly more expensive salary, so stay away from Hill.

Tight Ends

Brocks Bowers, LV vs. JAX ($4,000): With Desmond Ridder at the helm last week, Bowers only caught three passes for 35 yards. O’Connell isn’t exactly someone to build your franchise around, but he is lightyears better than Ridder. Given the issues that the Jaguars have had defending the pass, this is a great bounce-back spot for Bowers.

Hunter Henry, NE at BUF ($4,100): One of the main reasons we highlighted to avoid Stevenson is that the Patriots might be forced to throw a lot against the Bills. That might not help Stevenson, but that would be great news for Henry. Henry has received at least eight targets in a game six times this season. He emerged with at least six receptions and 56 receiving yards in five of them.

Player to Avoid

Cade Otton, TB at DAL ($4,400): The return of Mike Evans has dealt a massive blow to Otton. Across four games since Evans returned from injury, Otton has totaled just 10 receptions for 144 yards. In three of those games, he received four or fewer targets. Expect his role to remain limited as long as Evans is on the field.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 16

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