Wed Dec 18 8:55am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Mayfield can have big Week 16
Last week was quite the show in fantasy land. I can’t remember a week with so many monster fantasy performances. It made for some exciting, high-scoring fantasy games. Here is to hoping for a repeat in Week 16.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Just when you think Will Levis might be turning the corner, he goes back to his old ways. He looked game his first game or two back from his benching/injury, but has regressed once again to his old ways. I really think the Titans will be looking for a new quarterback next year. I don’t think Levis is the answer. He is just too erratic right now. A new team and fresh start might do him some good. He definitely has some big-time talent.
I don’t know what the heck happened to Kirk Cousins but he looks a shell of his former self. I just wonder if the offense isn’t a good fit for him. He just hasn’t been on time like he has in recent seasons with the Vikings. Cousins is just forcing passes too much right now. He has been a disaster of a signing for the Falcons, who are now turning to rookie Michael Penix for the rest of the season. Penix will be interesting to watch the rest of the way. He has some real fantasy potential.
The NFC is going to be really interesting to watch these playoffs. It looks like the Lions were going to roll through the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl, but injuries have really opened the door in my view for another team to unseat them. And there are several teams in the NFC playing good football right now, including the Vikings, Packers and Eagles. I think the representative in the NFC is wide open with several legit contenders to make a run. It should a fun one to watch this playoffs.
There are some quarterbacks really at the top of their game right now. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow look lights out. These guys have all been big-time fantasy factors this year and show that getting an elite quarterback can be a winning strategy despite having to use a higher draft pick on them. Consistency breeds success in fantasy and figuring out platoon options every week at quarterback can be tough. Having a guy like Allen to just plug in and play is a great luxury to have.
It really feels like Garrett Wilson has been a disappointment this season but you look at the scoring and he is seventh overall at receiver. Sure, the Jets have been a disappointment as a team but you can’t be too sour on Wilson. He is still producing pretty consistent numbers and had a few really big games. If this offense can turn the corner just a tad more, the sky is the limit for the ultra-talented Wilson.
Everyone thought Mark Andrews was done and washed after his horrible start to the season. Remember, he had six catches for 65 yards on nine targets his first four games. Well, those games are a distant past with Andrews looking like the elite tight end of old his last several games. He has 14-plus fantasy points six of nine games and is now sixth overall in fantasy tight end scoring. It just goes to show that sometimes if you ride out the bad, the good can override that before the season is over. He could end up helping a lot of fantasy teams win championships.
It just takes one bad week to lose a fantasy championship, so you hate to see what happened to Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry last week. These guys have carried teams all season to a lot of wins, but had some of their worst games of the season in Week 15. These showings likely knocked a lot of owners out. Why does it happen to at this time of the year? The fantasy gods aren’t always nice, right? It also shows you that not always the best teams in the regular season win it all. You just need to get hot at the right time.
News and Notes: The Chiefs released running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire on Monday. Edwards-Helaire didn't play a single down for the Chiefs in 2024. . . . .The Browns are making a change at quarterback, going with Dorian Thompson-Robinson for their Week 16 game. Jameis Winston heads to the bench because of his turnover issues in recent starts. . . . .The Colts signed tight end Albert Okwuegbunam on Tuesday. He gives the Colts another pass-catching option at tight end.
HOT PLAYS
Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield remains red hot, throwing four touchdown passes last week. He has three-plus touchdowns two straight games. He also has 22-plus fantasy points three of four games. Mayfield is fifth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring, proving last year wasn’t a fluke but more of the norm for him going forward. Look for another big game in Week 15, playing the Cowboys. Dallas allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 21st overall against the pass.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals. Conner had his fifth 100-yard game of the season last week and has 120-plus total yards two straight games. He has 22-plus fantasy points in each of his last two games. Conner has three games this season with 20-plus fantasy points. Conner is enjoying another very successful season, serving as a solid No. 1 back for fantasy teams. He has a great floor right now and should keep up his good ways this week against the Panthers. The Panthers have allowed more than 200-rushing yards three straight games. Carolina allows the most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. The Giants are a train wreck offensively, but Nabers continues to produce despite that. He had 10 receptions last week, reaching double-digit catches for the third time this season. He has been targeted double-digit times three straight games and failed to hit double-digit fantasy points just one game. It will be fun to see what Nabers does once he gets a competent quarterback throwing him passes. But even with that said, he is a must start this week against the Falcons. Atlanta allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers and ranks 24th overall against the pass.
D.J. Moore, WR, Bears. The Bears continue to have problems offensively, but Moore keeps producing. He failed to hit 50-receiving yards last week but had eight catches and ran for 24 yards. Moore still managed to score a solid 15 points for fantasy points. He has at least seven receptions four of five games, giving him a great floor right now. He gets the Lions this week in a game the Bears could be playing from behind, leading to a lot more throws for them. Moore should do well against a very banged up Lions secondary that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Dolphins. Smith is making a run at top fantasy tight end this season. He is producing huge lately, leading all tight ends in scoring his last three games. He has touchdowns two straight and four of five games. He isn’t just scoring, though, having nine or more receptions three of four games. He has been targeted double-digit times three of four. Smith is a must start no matter the matchup, including this week against the 49ers. He should continue to get his looks and produce big.
COLD PLAYS
Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix had another three-touchdown game last week but was intercepted three times and threw for just 130 yards. He scored just 17.8 fantasy points despite all the scores. Nix has cooled a little, having fewer than 19 points two straight and three of five games. He is a little hard to trust at this time of year, especially this week on the road against the Chargers. Los Angeles has been bad against the pass the last few games but been solid much of the year. The Chargers still allow the 14th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and ranks 10th overall against the pass.
Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders. Robinson tied a season high with carries last week, rushing 21 times. He managed just 65 yards, though, and was held out of the end zone. He has more than 70-rushing yards just one game since Week 7. Robinson was much more consistent earlier this season. He gets another tough matchup this week against the Eagles, a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs. Robinson ran 16 times for 63 yards against the Eagles in Week 11.
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. Jennings is having his best season as a pro, getting to start much of the year with Brandon Aiyuk out. But his numbers have tailed off the last few games, having fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of four. He had just two receptions for 31 yards on nine targets last week. The 49ers offense just isn't the same this year. Jennings could struggle to hit double-digit points once again this week against the Dolphins. Miami has some of the top cover corners in the game and allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is having his usual solid season this year but his down production the last few games comes at a bad time for his fantasy owners. He has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points two straight games and three of his last five. And now he likely is without Patrick Mahomes this week against a good Texans defense. It could be another down showing for Kelce, getting a team that allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers. Harris had a game to forget last week, rushing six times for just 14 yards. He had a season-low 3.1 fantasy points. He has been a little erratic much of the season, though, having fewer than eight points two of four games. He has five games total with fewer than double-digit fantasy points. It could be tough sledding again for him this week against a good Ravens rush defense. He ran 18 times for just 63 yards against the Ravens in Week 11. Baltimore allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs this season.
SLEEPERS
Cooper Rush, QB, Cowboys. If you are looking for a quarterback to stream this week, Rush is our guy. He has started to come alive as the starter for the Cowboys. He has multiple touchdowns two straight and three of four games. He had his first three-touchdown game of the season last week and gets a bad Bucs secondary in Week 15. Rush could get a lot of chances to air it out once again. Tampa is 30th overall against the pass and allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Ameer Abdullah, RB, Raiders. Sincere McCormick went down with an injury last week and it was Abdullah that played the most snaps of any Raiders back, playing 46 percent of the time. He played well with his chances, making a lot of plays in the passing game. He had seven receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. He topped double-digit fancy points for the fourth time this year. We like him to hit that mark again this week against a bad Jaguars defense. The Jags allow the third most fantasy points to running backs.
Calvin Austin, WR, Steelers. Austin had five receptions for 65 yards last week, giving him double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He has started to play a bigger role in the Steelers offense, especially with George Pickens out of the lineup. Austin tied for the most snaps played at receiver last week, playing 81 percent of the time. The Steelers are going to have to put up some points this week if they hope to keep you with the Ravens high-powered offense. Austin should get some chances to make big plays against a Ravens defense that allows the second most fantasy points to receivers.
Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints. Johnson is getting more looks with Taysom Hill out of the lineup. He has been targeted 15 times his last three games. He has 8.5-plus fantasy points three of four games. And with an inexperienced quarterback starting this week for the Saints, look for Johnson to get his looks as a safety valve. Plus, he gets a Packers team this week that has allowed some big fantasy games to tight ends, allowing the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Falcons. Mooney didn’t catch a single pass last week, getting targeted just one time. That can’t happen to a receiver that has been very good for the Falcons all season. He had 142 yards the previous game. He is the top big-play threat for the Falcons and should get some targets from the get go this week against the Giants. New York is trending the wrong way and allowed some big plays in the passing game this season. Look for Mooney to have one of his big games. The Giants have allowed 275-plus passing yards two of four games.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Eagles/Commanders, 49ers/Dolphins, Vikings/Seahawks, Bucs/Cowboys.
Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Chargers, Giants/Falcons, Titans/Colts.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell indeed worked as the deep threat in the absence of Alec Pierce (concussion), however, the 22-year-old was targeted just one time in this contest. The rookie wideout hauled in that one target for a big gain of 36 yards, but that was midway through the second quarter and the speedster did not receive another look for the rest of the game. Not that he was the only one who put up disappointing receiving numbers, as Josh Downs "led" the corps with three catches while Michael Pittman Jr. corralled just two. Jonathan Taylor ran all over the Titans, so there was no need for the Colts to ask Anthony Richardson to throw up a lot of passes, completing just 7-of-11 attempts on the day. Assuming Pierce can play next week, Mitchell will again work as the fourth option in a feeble passing attack and should not be trusted in fantasy championships.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught three of his seven targets for 29 yards and a touchdown in their 29-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. Hill could've had a much bigger game if not for a few dropped passes, one of which could've been another touchdown. With Jaylen Waddle (knee) out in this game, this wasn't exactly the level of production fantasy managers were hoping for. This is the fifth time this season that the 30-year-old had 30 yards or less, and the 11th time he has failed to reach 15 PPR fantasy points. At this point in the season, it's safe to say that Hill was one of the biggest busts of the 2024 season. His next opportunity comes next Sunday afternoon at the Cleveland Browns in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane carried the ball 17 times for 120 yards and a touchdown and added six catches on seven targets for 70 yards in their 29-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. This is further evidence that he is a weekly surefire RB1 with his best-rushing production of the season and scoring his fifth touchdown in the last five games. This is the sixth game in a row where Achane has eclipsed 14 PPR fantasy points. The 23-year-old was able to carry the offense on a day when moving the ball through the air was hard to come by. With Miami needing to win the next two games to have a shot at the playoffs, Achane will almost certainly be a big part of the game plan. Miami will travel to take on the Cleveland Browns in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts caught one of two targets for seven yards in Sunday's 34-7 blowout win over the Giants. A week after catching four passes, Pitts faded into the background once again, now with one catch or less in five of the last seven games. Michael Penix Jr. targeted eight different receivers in this one, but the bulk of it was focused on the three main pass catchers Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III. If you were a Pitts manager and survived this performance, congratulations. Next Sunday brings a matchup versus Washington who has been good against tight ends this season, so the 24-year-old will be a roll of the dice again for any manager interested in deploying him.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey delivered a fantastic performance for fantasy managers looking to advance through their playoffs during the 26-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The K3 on the season finished four-for-four on field goals while making both of his extra points. He made two 58-yarders, a 53, and a 49-yarder to accrue his ninth double-digit fantasy outing. This was also his second performance of 20 or more fantasy points. He'll go into a Week 17 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles trying to overtake Ka'imi Fairbairn and Chris Boswell.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins tight end Jonnu Smith caught all six of his targets for 62 yards in the 29-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. Smith was again as solid as he has been since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8. This is the tenth time he has seen six or more targets and the sixth time he has cracked 60 receiving yards in a game this season. The only downside in this game was his two-game touchdown streak being snapped. With Miami still fighting to make the playoffs, the last two remaining games will be meaningful, and Smith should be a heavy part of the game plan. He will travel to take on the Cleveland Browns in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert grabbed his sixth touchdown of the season in the team's surprising win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. The 25-year-old registered two catches for 20 yards and a score on three targets which was just enough to make him a WR3 before the Monday Night game kicks off. This was the second consecutive game that Tolbert found the end zone as well. He'll try to keep this streak alive against a tougher defense in the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray performed well on the ground in the 36-30 overtime loss to the Panthers, adding a 20-yard touchdown run. Murray's official stat line was 20-of-32 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, including 63 yards rushing and another touchdown. Unfortunately, Murray turned the ball over again, making a questionable throw in a crucial moment that was intercepted. The Cardinals' passing attack has struggled since the bye week, and the Cardinals are eliminated from playoff contention. Heading into next week, the Cardinals may be without running back James Conner (knee) and could be forced to rely more on Murray's legs to create in the running game. Murray will be on the lower end of quarterback rankings for championship week, though his rushing ability will keep him in the conversation when the Cardinals take on the Rams.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker wasn't much of a contributor in the team's win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. He posted two receptions for 41 yards on four targets and received one carry which went eight yards in the wrong direction. Unfortunately, Aidan O'Connell threw a lot of short passes that went to Brock Bowers and Ameer Abdullah more often than Tucker and Jakobi Meyers. This marks Tucker's third week in a row as a WR58 or worse in half-PPR formats. He'll try to bounce back against the New Orleans Saints in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks posted an efficient day on low volume in the 26-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The veteran caught all three of his targets for 48 yards but was unable to get into the end zone. The good news was that he hit his highest yardage mark of the season, but 48 yards for a season-high isn't going to be a fantasy league winner. Cooks remains a very risky boom or bust option, especially with Cooper Rush behind center. The Cowboys take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 presenting a tougher task for Cooks to score.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell put his game-managing hat on and led the team to a 19-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The former fourth-round pick registered 257 yards with no touchdowns or turnovers on 24-for-38 throwing and seven carries for 12 yards. While his performance wasn't spectacular, especially in fantasy football, he managed the offense enough for the team's third win. His fantasy ceiling is very limited, but he'll look to grab another win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers couldn't get much of a rhythm going despite getting the 19-14 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. He finished with two catches for 41 yards on five targets and no touchdowns. This was his lowest yardage total since Week 11 and his fewest receptions in any game this season. In fact, this was his worst weekly finish of the year as the WR56 in half-PPR formats. He'll try to right the ship for fantasy managers in Week 17 against the New Orleans Saints.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush had one of his strongest performances of the season on Sunday night in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rush completed 26-of-35 passes for 292 yards and a touchdown, leaning on star receiver CeeDee Lamb for big plays in the narrow victory. The 31-year-old has a tough matchup against Philadelphia on tap for Week 17.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison had four catches for 39 yards in an overtime loss to Carolina. Dynasty Analysis: Harrison was supposed to be the next big thing at the position, but he's honestly been outplayed by both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr for most of the season. While his 51/726/7 season thus far has been fine, he's shown little to make us really believe he can be the next Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase, despite playing with better quarterbacks than both Nabers and Thomas (at least most of the season). Harrison's dynasty value is going to start slipping unless we see some dominant performances.
Dynasty | Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr had nine catches for 132 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Raiders. Dynasty Analysis: Now armed with 49 targets the past four games and a 73/1,088/9 line as a rookie, Thomas has simply solidified his status as a top-ten dynasty wide receiver. When you consider he's spent the year on a team in turmoil and without Trevor Lawrence for a big chunk of the season, this is even more impressive. As Michael Jordan would say, "The ceiling is the roof," for this young receiver.
Dynasty | Raiders tight end Brock Bowers had 11 catches for 99 yards in a win against Jacksonville. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers now has 101 catches for 1,067 yards and four touchdowns on the season, becoming the first rookie tight end with 1,000 receiving yards since Kyle Pitts (remember him). Before that, the last to achieve the feat was Mike Ditka about 1,000 years ago. Bowers has solidified his status as the TE1 in dynasty leagues and at this point, it's not really that close.
Dynasty | Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr completed 18-of-27 passes for 202 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in a win against the Giants. Dynasty Analysis: Penix's interception was far from his fault as a red zone pass to Kyle Pitts bounced right off his hands and into the arms of the defense. Penix moved the offense effectively and didn't look rattled at all. While this was the Giants defense that doesn't exactly resemble the '85 Bears, Penix gave the Falcons more than Kirk Cousins has for most of the year. His dynasty value is on the rise.
Dynasty | Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs had 109 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against Chicago. Dynasty Analysis: With David Montgomery out this week, Gibbs took on the role of featured back and flourished. He even added four catches and 45 yards on the day. As long as Montgomery is sidelined, Gibbs belongs locked into playoff lineups. This late season surge will also likely stop any kind of value drop he incurred during the year.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 22 of 34 passes for 215 yards and one touchdown in the 29-17 Week 16 win over the San Francisco 49ers. He also carried the ball two times for -1 yards. With how stout the 49ers are at defending the pass, Tagovailoa and the Miami offense let the ground game take over. These last two games have been the lowest-scoring stretch of the season for the 26-year-old and couldn't have come at a more inopportune time. However, he was missing one of his top weapons, Jaylen Waddle (knee), which affected the air attack. Miami still has a sliver of hope to make the playoffs if the Denver Broncos somehow lose all their remaining games, so these next two games could be meaningful. Week 17 will be in colder conditions when he and the Dolphins travel to take on the Cleveland Browns.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders running back Alexander Mattison rumbled into the end zone for the first time since Week 6 in the team's 19-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The former Minnesota Viking finished the game with 12 carries for 27 yards and one score while hauling in four of his seven targets for 29 yards. For those fantasy managers who were brave or desperate enough to start Mattison, his touchdown boosted his performance to an RB2 which was his fifth time finishing in that area. The Raiders will take on the New Orleans Saints in Week 17.
From RotoBaller