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FFL: Playoff Week 1 | NFL: Week 15

Week 15 TNF: Falcons-Buccaneers Preview, Props, Prediction

Thu Dec 11 5:39pm ET
Field Level Media

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers suddenly find themselves in desperate need of a victory when the Atlanta Falcons visit to kick off Week 15 in the NFL on Thursday night.

Upset by New Orleans last week, Tampa Bay is now tied atop the NFC South at 7-6 with the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the 4-9 Falcons are trying to reverse a skid that has seen Atlanta drop seven of its past eight games.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Bucs are consensus 5.5-point favorites. That includes at BetMGM, where Tampa Bay has been backed by 78% of the spread-line bets and 63% of the money. The Bucs' -225 moneyline has been even more popular, drawing 67% and 87% of the action, respectively.

The total points line at the book has shifted from 44.5 to 44.0, with the Over supported by 56% of the bets and 61% of the money.

PROP PICKS

--Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): Robinson caught just two passes for 8 yards in Seattle last week but has generally been an integral part of the Falcons' passing game with 602 receiving yards this season. Before the Seahawks game, Robinson had at least 37 receiving yards nine times this season, and at least 39 in eight of those. This is the most popular player prop at the book for this matchup.

--Bucs RB Bucky Irving 3+ Receptions (-178 at DraftKings): Irving has a pair of catches in both games since returning from a seven-game absence. However, he had 4+ catches in each of his four games before getting injured and his workload figures to only increase. Larger potential payouts are available for 4+ (+106) and 5+ (+252) receptions.

INSIDE EDGE

Falcons running backs have averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season, second best in the NFL, according to Inside Edge's Remarkable engine. Meanwhile, the Bucs are second-worst in the league in allowing an average of 11.5 yards after catch per reception to running backs.

KEY STAT

In two outings since injuring his left shoulder, Bucs quarterback Mayfield is averaging just 158 passing yards per game and completed a season-low 46.7% (14 of 30) of his passes against the Saints. The veteran quarterback isn't using the injury as an excuse, but understands the offense needs to find a rhythm. The Buccaneers are averaging just 15.7 points across their last three games.

"It's the little things," Mayfield said of what needs improvement. "Whether it's me being on time with my footwork, getting the protection aligned, the depths of the routes, it all comes down to executing. It's not just one thing you can point to, it's a culmination of things. We'll get it fixed."

THEY SAID IT

--"For me, that's the cost of doing business. You don't put yourself in positions to worry about those things. As a leader, you've got to stand up in front of people and answer the hard questions, and you've also got to stand up and be a good example for your guys in how you go and finish things." --Falcons coach Raheem Morris on questions about his job status

--"I think saying things has merit. I think doing things has probably more merit. It's more about how you practice, how you prepare, how you play on Thursday night is really what it comes down to." --Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has thrown for 192 yards per game in four starts in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr. The oldest player in the Atlanta locker room, Cousins acknowledges the need for a vocal leader during the team's rough stretch, but also knows the on-field performance is paramount.

INJURY REPORT

Falcons wide receiver Drake London hasn't played since Nov. 16 as he deals with a knee injury. London was a non-participant all week in practice and ruled out on Wednesday.

Tight end Kyle Pitts (knee), edge rusher Jalon Walker (quad) and defensive linemen Brandon Dorlus (groin) and David Onyemata (foot) were listed as questionable on Wednesday.

Mayfield could benefit from the return of six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans. He has been out with a broken collarbone since Oct. 20 but the Bucs activated Evans from injured reserve on Wednesday along with wide receiver Jalen McMillan, who has yet to play this season because of a neck injury sustained in an Aug. 26 preseason game.

Evans and McMillan were listed as questionable to play, while tight end Cade Otton (knee) and safety Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder) are doubtful and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (hip) and safety Rashad Wisdom (quad) were ruled out for Thursday's game.

PREDICTION

Mayfield has struggled since injuring his shoulder and is playing on a short week. But he's doing it against a reeling Falcons team, with the Bucs at home and getting some reinforcements in their passing game. --Bucs 23, Falcons 20

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Starts, Sits, Sleepers: Week 15

Player Notes
David Sills Dec 12 12:40am ET
David Sills

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver David Sills V caught six of his 10 targets for 78 yards during Thursday's Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sills was heavily targeted by Kirk Cousins in the victory, and he continued to earn the quarterback's trust even after a potential touchdown pass hit off his hands. The 29-year-old made up for it with six total catches, including a key reception that moved the chains and kept Atlanta's hopes alive on fourth-and-long during the final, game-winning drive. Sills' rapport with Cousins has been thrust into the spotlight ever since it was reported that the two have lockers next to each other. He has taken on a much bigger role with Drake London sidelined, playing at least 94% of the snaps in each of his last two games. He has at least 9.5 fantasy points (PPR) in three of his last four games with London inactive, as well as a touchdown in two of those four. Sills' fantasy value will presumably decline when London returns, but until that happens, he has streaming appeal as a high-volume WR3/flex in deeper leagues.

From RotoBaller

Mike Evans Dec 12 12:30am ET
Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans caught six of his 12 targets for 132 yards during Thursday's Week 15 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The 32-year-old was activated from injured reserve earlier this week after recovering from a broken collarbone, and he wasted no time playing an enormous role in his return to action. Managers did hold their breath momentarily as Evans suffered an injury scare and left midgame with an apparent shoulder issue, but he returned shortly after and played the remainder of the game. After watching the star receiver step up as Baker Mayfield's favorite and best target once again on Thursday, managers should trust that Evans will remain in the WR1 tier for the remainder of the season. He should be started in all fantasy leagues next week against the Carolina Panthers.

From RotoBaller

Chris Godwin Dec 12 12:30am ET
Chris Godwin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. caught four of his five targets for 20 yards, a touchdown, and a two-point conversion during Thursday's Week 15 loss against the Atlanta Falcons. Godwin scored an octopus, which is when a player is responsible for eight points in a sequence of two plays -- a touchdown and a successful two-point conversion. Although his yardage total was relatively low, the 29-year-old maintained decent volume even amid the return of Mike Evans, which bodes well for Godwin's fantasy outlook over the final few weeks of the season. He has scored double-digit fantasy points (PPR) in each of his last three games, and he should remain in the mid-to-low WR2 tier heading into Week 16 against the Carolina Panthers.

From RotoBaller

Baker Mayfield Dec 12 12:20am ET
Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 19 of his 34 pass attempts for 277 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception during Thursday's Week 15 loss against the Atlanta Falcons. He also took five sacks in the defeat. Mayfield was decent for most of the game, but he threw a costly interception in the fourth quarter that allowed the Falcons to mount an improbable comeback. The 30-year-old has really struggled to hit his receivers in the back half of the season, completing just 54.7% of his passes over the Bucs' last five games. He ranks 21st among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game during that span. Managers will hope that he can bounce back in a key divisional battle against the Panthers next week, but it won't be easy. Carolina has intercepted five passes over its last two games. Mayfield remains outside the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks for the time being.

From RotoBaller

Bijan Robinson Dec 12 12:10am ET
Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had 19 carries, 93 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown during Thursday's Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also caught eight of his 11 targets for an additional 82 receiving yards. The lone blemish on Robinson's final stat line was a fumble in the third quarter. Outside of the turnover, the former first-round pick had an enormous showing on Thursday Night Football, playing a major role in the Falcons' comeback victory. He was efficient on the ground, heavily involved and productive as a receiver, and contributed to the scoring with a nifty rushing touchdown. Unlike in some previous weeks, Robinson was able to fend off Tyler Allgeier from having much of a role in Week 15. Robinson played 90.1% of the snaps with 27 total touches, whereas Allgeier played just 16.9% of the snaps with two touches. Allgeier's 16.9% snap share was his second-lowest mark of the season, trailing only Week 3 when he played fewer than 10%. Long story short, Robinson remains the undisputed workhorse here, and he's going to play a massive role in helping managers pursue a fantasy championship over the next few weeks. He should continue to feast against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16.

From RotoBaller

Kyle Pitts Dec 12 12:00am ET
Kyle Pitts

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. caught 11 of his 12 targets for 166 yards and three touchdowns during Thursday's Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Pitts turned in the best game of his career, showing flashes of why the Falcons made him the No. 4 pick back in 2021. The 25-year-old had just one touchdown this season prior to Thursday, and he hadn't exceeded more than 90 yards in a game yet. He shattered both of those marks in the win, and he also registered the first double-digit catch total of his career. While Pitts probably won't replicate this breakout game every week, it's encouraging to see that he's capable of producing such a superstar-caliber performance. He firmly ranks in the mid-to-high TE1 tier ahead of Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals.

From RotoBaller

Kirk Cousins Dec 12 12:00am ET
Kirk Cousins

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 30 of his 44 pass attempts for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions during Thursday's Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also took one sack and recovered his own fumble. Cousins led five scoring drives on Thursday, including the game-winner with less than two minutes left to play. The veteran quarterback shook off the old narrative that he's incapable of thriving in the primetime slot, and in doing so, he kicked off his candidacy for the top-scoring fantasy quarterback in Week 15. It's unlikely that many managers started Cousins in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, but his big game could be enough to justify deploying him as a fringe top-12 fantasy option heading into a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals next week.

From RotoBaller

Dont'e Thornton Jr. Dec 11 10:40pm ET
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Dont'e Thornton Jr. (concussion) upgraded to a full participant in practice on Thursday. He had previously opened the week in a limited capacity. It appears that Thornton is trending in the right direction to clear concussion protocol and play in Sunday's Week 15 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. The 23-year-old has been underwhelming in his first NFL season, even after teammate Jakobi Meyers was traded away. He ranks as the overall WR138 in PPR leagues with 25 targets, eight catches, and 123 yards so far this year. Even if he's confirmed as active on Sunday, Thornton can be avoided in all fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Elijah Arroyo Dec 11 10:40pm ET
Elijah Arroyo

Seattle Seahawks tight end Elijah Arroyo (knee) missed a second consecutive practice on Thursday. The rookie is trending in the wrong direction ahead of Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts, and he'd likely need to get on the field in some capacity on Friday to have any shot at playing on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks invested a second-round pick in Arroyo this year, but he has consistently operated in the No. 2 tight end role behind A.J. Barner. He has just 15 catches, 179 yards, and one touchdown in his rookie campaign, ranking as the overall TE53 in PPR leagues. Assuming Arroyo doesn't play this week, the Seahawks could activate Eric Saubert (calf) from injured reserve to back up Barner against the Colts.

From RotoBaller

Michael Mayer Dec 11 10:30pm ET
Michael Mayer

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer (ankle) was a full participant in practice on Thursday. This was an upgrade for the backup tight end after he logged a limited practice session on Wednesday. Mayer is working his way back from a two-game absence, and it looks like he should suit up against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, barring any sort of setback. The 24-year-old is one of the better backup tight ends in the NFL, but he still doesn't handle enough volume in his role behind Brock Bowers to justify starting him in fantasy football. To make matters worse, Mayer will likely be catching passes from Kenny Pickett this week with Geno Smith (shoulder, back) not expected to play.

From RotoBaller

Emari Demercado Dec 11 10:20pm ET
Emari Demercado

Arizona Cardinals running back Emari Demercado (ankle) remained limited for a second consecutive practice on Thursday. Demercado is working his way back from a three-game absence, and it looks like there's at least a chance that he could suit up against the Houston Texans on Sunday in Week 15. The 26-year-old was solid when healthy, amassing 182 scrimmage yards and playing more than 40% of the offensive snaps over his last two healthy games. Friday's practice will provide more clarity on his status for Week 15. Even if he does play, though, he'll have to compete for touches with Michael Carter and Bam Knight. For now, Demercado isn't a dependable running back or flex option in the fantasy football playoffs.

From RotoBaller

Darnell Washington Dec 11 10:20pm ET
Darnell Washington

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Darnell Washington (concussion) was a limited participant in practice on Thursday, and he remains in concussion protocol ahead of Sunday's Week 15 contest against the Miami Dolphins. Washington exited last week's game early after catching just one pass for 12 yards. He had looked solid in his nine previous contests, though, totaling 22 catches, 276 yards, and one touchdown during that span. The 24-year-old has quietly passed Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth in terms of snap count, but his fantasy production has still left a lot to be desired. He can be dropped in redraft leagues and stashed in deeper dynasty formats.

From RotoBaller

Theo Johnson Dec 11 10:10pm ET
Theo Johnson

New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson (toe) was limited for a second consecutive practice on Thursday. He has not yet missed a game this season, and he's trending in the right direction for Week 15 given that he has been able to get on the field in some capacity for two days in a row. Johnson has impressed in his second pro season, ranking as the overall TE13 in PPR leagues with 42 catches, 456 yards, and five touchdowns. He commanded a season-high eight targets last week, but caught just three passes. Johnson takes on the Commanders this Sunday. Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2025, putting Johnson in the low-end TE1 tier for this week.

From RotoBaller

Devin Neal Dec 11 10:00pm ET
Devin Neal

New Orleans Saints running back Devin Neal (abdomen) remained a limited participant in practice for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The rookie has handled an increased workload lately with Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle) sidelined and Kendre Miller (knee) on injured reserve. He's averaging 71.3 scrimmage yards as the starter and scored his first career touchdown last week. Kamara is trending toward missing another game, leaving Neal in line to start against the Carolina Panthers, assuming he's healthy enough to play. At this rate, Neal has a decent chance to suit up in Week 15 as long as he logs a limited or full practice on Friday. If Neal is confirmed as active and Kamara is out, the rookie will rank as a mid-to-low RB2 in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Lawrence Dec 11 9:40pm ET
Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (ankle) upgraded to a full participant in practice on Thursday. He had been limited on Wednesday. The 26-year-old should play in Sunday's Week 15 contest against the New York Jets, barring any sort of setback during practice on Friday. Lawrence has played very clean football lately, amassing 473 passing yards, 41 rushing yards, four touchdowns, and zero turnovers over his last two games. He is the overall QB12 in fantasy football scoring this season and is a worthy starter in deeper leagues this week. The Jets have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, and they're the only defense that has not intercepted a pass yet this season.

From RotoBaller

Mason Taylor Dec 11 9:30pm ET
Mason Taylor

New York Jets tight end Mason Taylor (neck) did not practice on Thursday in preparation for Week 15 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This was the second day in a row that the rookie tight end was sidelined. Taylor has not yet missed a game this season, but it looks like he's trending in the wrong direction for Sunday's contest in Florida. He picked up the injury last week against the Miami Dolphins when he played just 68% of the offensive snaps but still caught five of his eight targets for 51 yards. The 21-year-old ranks as the overall TE24 in PPR leagues this season, and he has been a matchup-based streamer in deeper leagues at times this season. If Taylor can't play in Week 15, Jeremy Ruckert would step up as the primary tight end in New York's Tyrod Taylor-led offense.

From RotoBaller

Justin Herbert Dec 11 9:20pm ET
Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (left hand) was limited for a second consecutive day on Thursday. This is the same left hand injury that required surgery prior to Week 14, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Herbert continues to appear on the injury report. Given that he was able to play last Monday against the Eagles, he remains on track to play this upcoming Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. The injury clearly hindered Herbert last week as he completed just 14 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. He also had one interception, one fumble lost, and seven sacks. On a more positive note, he did rush for 66 yards on 10 carries, perhaps because his passing ability was limited by the left hand injury. We should expect a similar performance from Herbert in Week 15. He has dropped to the QB22 spot in RotoBaller's latest fantasy football rankings.

From RotoBaller

Ladd McConkey Dec 11 9:10pm ET
Ladd McConkey

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (foot) was limited for a second consecutive day on Thursday. McConkey is coming off a busy game in which he played 86 percent of the snaps, which was his highest mark since Week 7. Despite the increased usage, his volume was held in check as he caught just one of five targets for 12 yards. On a more positive note, he has a touchdown in every other game dating back to Week 6, so he could be a scoring threat this upcoming Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. In his last outing against Kansas City, McConkey caught six of his nine targets for 74 yards. He remains in the WR2 tier for this week. The Chiefs represent a tough matchup, but we should see plenty of pass attempts in this competitive game between two divisional foes.

From RotoBaller

Christian McCaffrey Dec 11 8:50pm ET
Christian McCaffrey

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (illness) was a limited participant during practice on Thursday. This was an improvement in status for McCaffrey, who missed practice entirely on Wednesday. He's trending in the right direction to play against the Tennessee Titans in Week 15, but managers should check back on Friday for additional confirmation on his status. If he's able to practice in full, he could avoid any sort of injury designation heading into the weekend. However, if he remains limited, the 49ers may list him as questionable. With that being said, the fact that McCaffrey was able to get on the field in some capacity on Thursday bodes well for his Week 15 availability. If active, he'll rank as a high-end RB1 against the Titans, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs in 2025.

From RotoBaller

Davante Adams Dec 11 8:30pm ET
Davante Adams

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) missed practice for a second consecutive day on Thursday. The veteran receiver picked up the injury in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals and ultimately played less than half of the offensive snaps. While it's not uncommon for a veteran player to sit out the first practice of the week as a precaution, it's more concerning to see Adams miss two practice sessions in a row. He'd likely need to log a limited or full practice on Friday in order to have any chance of playing against the Detroit Lions in Week 15. If active, the touchdown threat would rank as a mid-to-low WR1 in fantasy football. If he's sidelined, Tutu Atwell and Konata Mumpfield would earn more snaps as the Rams' No. 2 wide receiver behind superstar Puka Nacua. We should have more clarity on Adams' status when the Rams publish their final injury report on Friday.

From RotoBaller