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Week 7 TNF: Preview, Props, Prediction

Thu Oct 16 5:02pm ET
Field Level Media

The third all-time meeting between 40-something quarterbacks kicks off the Week 7 slate for the NFL on Thursday night.

Aaron Rodgers, 41, and the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) visit 40-year-old Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) on Thursday night. The previous two times occurred in 2020, when Drew Brees, 41, and the New Orleans Saints twice beat Tom Brady, 43, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Steelers enter riding a three-game winning streak and are consensus 5.5-point favorites over the Bengals, who have dropped four straight since losing quarterback Joe Burrow to a toe injury.

The spread line has drawn fairly event action at BetRivers, where Pittsburgh has drawn 55% of the money and 56% of the total bets. However, there is far stronger consensus on who will win the game outright, with the Steelers backed by 73 and 79 percent of the action, respectively, on their -275 moneyline.

Cincinnati's past 11 games have all been won by the favorite, while eight of the Bengals' past nine home games have gone Over the total points line. That number sits at 44.5 points at BetRivers, with the Over backed by 80% of the money and 56% of the bets.

PROP PICKS

--Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf Anytime TD Scorer (+143 at BetRivers): The first-year Steeler is quickly building chemistry with Rodgers, having scored in each of the past four games. Metcalf also has his two best production games over the past two games, catching five passes for 126 yards in Week 4 and four passes for 95 yards last Sunday.

--Bengals WR Tee Higgins 25+ Receiving Yards (-367 at DraftKings): The passing game received an immediate jolt with Flacco under center, which included Higgins catching a season-high 62 yards worth of passes last Sunday. He has had at least 25 receiving yards in four of six games to start the season, so the short odds aren't overly concerning here. The higher risk/reward factor comes with Higgins at 40+ Yards (-160), 50+ Yards (-102) and 60+ Yards (+155).

INSIDE EDGE INTEL

Steelers wide receivers lead the NFL with an average of 8.7 yards after the catch this season. The Bengals have allowed 5.2 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season (third-worst in NFL). Last season, the Bengals allowed 10 TD passes to tight ends.

SERIES REWIND

The Steelers won 11 consecutive games in the series from 2015-2020 and hold the all-time edge over the Bengals, 71-40 including a 2-0 record in the postseason.

THE BREAKDOWN

Cincinnati acquired Flacco prior to last week's trip to Green Bay and immediately installed him as the starter. The Bengals were 2-0 in games started by Burrow, who is on IR with a toe injury.

Jake Browning threw eight interceptions in three-plus games and Cincinnati was 0-3 in his last three starts, prompting the maneuver of acquiring Flacco from Cleveland to start for his third different AFC North team (Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns). He threw two TD passes in his debut last week and it's fair to say Steelers coach Mike Tomlin wasn't excited to learn he'd be seeing Flacco for the 26th time in his career (the first 22 as a member of the rival Ravens and last September when Flacco replaced an injured Anthony Richardson with the Indianapolis Colts).

Rodgers might not be the MVP-level quarterback of decades ago, but he has mostly enjoyed success in a career reset with the Steelers. He rolls into Week 7 with 63,973 career regular-season passing yards and is only 115 yards back from former Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (64,088 passing yards), who is currently fifth all-time in regular-season passing yards. Cincinnati has been hit early and often by big plays, especially in the passing game. The Bengals' 43 passing TDs allowed since the start of the 2024 season is second-worst in the NFL.

Pittsburgh's offseason investments on the other side of the ball are boosting the secondary. CB Jalen Ramsey gets a one-on-one matchup with Ja'Marr Chase, Flacco's clear No. 1 target, as the Bengals try to find a spark in the running game. Chase caught his 50th career TD last week and his 2,176 receiving yards since the 2024 season began leads the NFL. While his numbers are down from a superhuman effort in 2024, Chase is averaging seven catches per game, tied for No. 3 in the league.

RB Chase Brown's average of 2.7 yards per carry and 1.5 yards after contact are in the bottom five of the 43 qualified NFL backs in the league.

THEY SAID IT

--"It's reasonable to expect him to be significantly better in Week 2. He's been in the stadium with them. They've been in the stadium with him. They understand his demeanor, how he deals with circumstances. I would imagine they worked hard a week ago on developing timing and cohesion." --Tomlin

--"It's one thing (the media) can't talk about this week in terms of me being older, at least, but it's pretty neat. Aaron's been in the league a few years longer than me, but we both started playing in 2008, so doing it for a long time. It's pretty cool." --Flacco

INJURY REPORT

Cincinnati leading pass rusher Trey Hendrickson suffered a back contusion and did not return after exiting in the final minute of the first half at Green Bay. He was listed as questionable on the final injury report but is not expected to play.

The Bengals are expected to get a key piece of their defense back as rookie defensive end Shemar Stewart, the 17th overall pick in April, is expected to play after missing the last four games with an ankle injury, according to defensive coordinator Al Golden. Stewart has practiced both days this week.

Cincinnati, however, could be without tight ends Mike Gesicki (pectoral) and Tanner Hudson (concussion). Both missed practice Tuesday.

For the Steelers, safety and special teams captain Miles Killebrew suffered a "significant" knee injury against Cleveland, said Tomlin, who has ruled him out for Thursday's game.

PREDICTION

Flacco pumped some life into the Bengals' offense but the Steelers can kick a lying dog while it's down and further distance themselves atop the AFC North with a convincing road win. Pittsburgh's offense is finding its rhythm and can control field position while dominating the clock with Cincinnati's ground game 31st in the NFL averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. --Steelers 30, Bengals 20

Week 7 TNF: Preview, Props, Prediction

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