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NFL Divisional Playoffs: Commanders-Lions Preview, Props & Prediction

Sat Jan 18 4:12pm ET
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Detroit will be the final playoff team to begin its playoff journey this season when the Lions play host to the Washington Commanders in the second NFL game on Saturday night.

Detroit claimed the No. 1 seed in the NFC for the first time in franchise history.

"We came into this year ready for games like this," Lions quarterback Jared Goff said. "If we win, we get another one at home. That's a big reward."

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Lions are consensus 9.0-point favorites among regulated sportsbooks. That includes at BetRivers, where Detroit has been backed by 54 percent of the spread-line tickets and 74 percent of the money.

Detroit's -560 moneyline has been a far more popular play. Despite the low odds and potential payout, the Lions have drawn 81 and 87 percent of the action, respectively.

The 55.5 total points line has since the Over heavily supported with 71 percent of the money.

PROP PICK

Lions WR Jameson Williams Over 3.5 Receptions (-150 at DraftKings): The third-year big-play wide receiver has become an integral part of the passing game, averaging seven targets over his past eight games. He has had at least five receptions in all but one of those games, which is why this has been the most popular player prop at the book.

THE NEWS

Runners up to the 49ers in the NFC last season, the Lions (15-2) set a franchise record for wins in the 2024 regular season, clinching the NFC North with a Week 18 win over the Minnesota Vikings. That victory secured the only first-round bye in the conference.

While the Lions rested and plotted ways to protect their injury-ravaged defense, the Commanders scored their first postseason victory since 2005 at Tampa Bay, 23-20 behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.

A completion percentage of 72 percent with 12 touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime helped define Daniels' stellar rookie season. He threw a game-tying TD pass to No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin on fourth down at Tampa Bay and, after the Buccaneers tied the game, he calmly connected on three straight passes and ran for a first down to set up the game-winning field goal.

Daniels led five comeback wins and helped Washington crash the playoffs with three fourth-quarter touchdown passes to beat the Eagles last month.

Daniels, described by his coach as a "killer inside that helmet," might not fit the description of rookie at this point in the season. He helped the Commanders improve from four wins to a 12-5 finish and was 8-3 in one-score games.

"He does not play the position like a rookie quarterback," Lions head coach Dan Campbell said.

The No. 6 seed in the NFC goes back on the road for the fourth playoff matchup with the Lions, who are 0-3 against Washington in the playoffs. With a win, the Commanders would advance to the conference championship for the first time since they defeated the Lions in the 1991 NFC title game.

"Jayden has such poise in these winning time moments. And that is contagious as well," Commanders head coach Dan Quinn said.

Beating Detroit on its home turf is likely to require another clutch showing from Daniels and the Washington defense. The Commanders slowed down Baker Mayfield and the Bucs last week, but the Lions are a different animal.

No. 1 in the NFL in scoring offense (33.2 points per game) and second in total offense (409.5 yards per game) during the regular season, Detroit welcomes the return of running back David Montgomery (1,116 yards from scrimmage, 12 rushing TDs in 2024) after he missed three games with a knee injury sustained Dec. 15. Montgomery was considered a surgery candidate but said rehab has him feeling stronger than he was before the injury.

"He's a big part of this team. Anytime you get a key player and a guy like him -- the way he runs, you really can't replace it," Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown said. "To have him back, we're all pretty excited on the offensive side of the ball because he sets a tone for us as an offense. I feel like he gets guys going. We can't wait to have him out there. I'm excited to see him even go in practice again and then be out there for the game."

A key to slowing Montgomery down for the Commanders is middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. A second-team All-Pro in 2024, Wagner injured his ankle on the second-to-last defensive play of the wild-card win last week and didn't practice Tuesday or Wednesday.

The 34-year-old was back on the field Thursday in a limited capacity and is expected to play Saturday.

Wagner followed Quinn to Washington and topped 100 tackles for the 11th consecutive season. Described as a "heartbeat" presence on defense, Wagner has 17 playoff appearances in the NFL.

The 230-pound Montgomery's pad-popping running style is the ideal complement to speedy Jahmyr Gibbs, who topped 21 miles per hour on two of his TDs (70-yard run, 54-yard reception), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Gibbs led the team with 1,412 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, plus 52 catches for 517 yards and four more TDs. St. Brown was named All-Pro in 2024 with a team-high 115 receptions for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs, and Goff throwing 37 TD passes and completing 72.4 percent of his attempts.

"They're all really good," Commanders defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said. "They test your discipline. I think (offensive coordinator) Ben (Johnson) does a really nice job of understanding coverages. He understands the responsibility of every player, and he's going to test the discipline of those players in coverage. ... And then they have really good players."

Detroit's defense has been dominant on third down despite being besieged by injuries. The Lions led the NFL in third-down defense and beat the Vikings by surprising Minnesota with more than 50 percent man-to-man coverage, far higher than the league average. Even with subs in several key positions, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn hasn't changed the approach. Twelve defensive players who were starters or key backups are on IR.

But staying the course and delivering results is the big reason he's been a popular target for teams with a vacancy at head coach.

"One thing I've respected is so many times when you see a team have injuries, they change to play differently," Quinn said. "And 'let's play more of this,' which they never did. I thought there's some boldness and confidence that goes with that."

Washington and Detroit are both plenty bold when it comes to rolling the dice. The Commanders led the NFL in fourth-down conversion percentage, moving the chains on 20 of 23 attempts. Campbell and Johnson went for it on fourth down more than any other team this season and converted 22 of 33 tries. They lead the NFL with 151 attempts on fourth down since 2021.

The Commanders converted three times in five fourth-down tries last week.

"I think that's who we are the whole season," Quinn said. "But when you do get stopped early, you just have to stay the course knowing that, 'Hey, keep your chin tucked and keep swinging,' knowing that this is going to be a game that's going to go all the way down to the end."

Goff, a No. 1 pick in 2016 who played in a Super Bowl with the Rams before joining the Lions via trade, said Daniels, drafted No. 2 in 2024, appears comfortable no matter the circumstance.

"It doesn't look like he is a rookie, it doesn't look like he feels like a rookie," Goff said. "It feels like he understands the moment and is comfortable in it and our job on defense is to try to make him uncomfortable. It's been a challenge for a lot of teams this year, but I'm excited to see what they do."

KEY STAT

Rookie quarterbacks are 5-7 in the Divisional Playoffs since 1950 and 1-4 since 2010. Only Mark Sanchez (2009 with the Jets) and Joe Flacco (2008, Ravens) have won multiple road games as rookie starters.

INJURY REPORT

Montgomery practiced in full all week, as did Detroit cornerback Terrion Arnold (foot).

Detroit will be without right guard Kevin Zeitler (hamstring), with rookie Christian Mahogany due to step in for his second NFL start. Lions reserve defensive lineman Pat O'Connor (calf) is out, and cornerback Ennis Rakestraw (hamstring/illness) was considered questionable.

Washington ruled out reserve linebacker Jordan Magee (hamstring) while listing reserve linebacker Mykal Walker (illness) as questionable.

PREDICTION

The Lions managed their way through a slew of defensive injuries to roll off 15 wins during the regular season. The offense is explosive in the run and pass games, putting Daniels in a precarious position of trying to keep pace in a shootout on the road in a raucous environment.

--Lions 34, Commanders 24

NFL Divisional Playoffs: Commanders-Lions Preview, Props & Prediction

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