Guest of the League
All-American 32
FFL: Playoff Week 2 | NFL: Week 17

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 17

Fri Dec 27 8:05pm ET
Field Level Media

With NFL games on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday this week, Week 17's Sunday slate only features nine games. With several games like Raiders vs. Saints where both teams are bad, putting money on the traditional betting line is challenging. But it is a great week for NFL player props.

The following are our top 10 player prop picks for Sunday's NFL games. (Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise indicated.)

Jets vs. Bills

--Breece Hall, O/U 49.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

Hall has gone over this number in six of his last seven games. With rain in the forecast for Buffalo on Sunday, there is a good chance the Jets will focus more on the run. Plus, the more they run, the longer they can keep Josh Allen on the sideline.

Hall ran for a season-high 113 yards on the Bills earlier this year. The Bills have been an average run defense this season, which makes me think Hall will easily surpass 49.5 yards.

Take the OVER.

--James Cook, O/U 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards at -114/-114

The Bills have leaned into the run the last couple of weeks, with Cook going for 100-plus in two straight games and three of four. With inclement conditions expected, it would be surprising if they didn't hand off to Cook early and often this week as well.

He could go over the total just running the ball. But in case he doesn't break off a long run like he did the last two weeks, he'll make up the difference with a couple of screen passes.

Take the OVER.

Falcons vs. Commanders

--Bijan Robinson, O/U 83.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

--Robinson, O/U 18.5 Rushing Attempts at -132/+102

The best thing Atlanta can do to help Michael Penix Jr. is establish the run, which the Falcons should do anyway with a running back like Robinson. He's gone for 86 or more yards in six of his last seven games (four in a row). He carried the ball 19-plus times in each of them; in the outlier, he only had 12 carries.

Atlanta will make sure Robinson eats against Washington's lackluster run defense (29th in the NFL).

Take the OVER on both.

--Michael Penix Jr., O/U 207.5 Passing Yards at -114/-114

--Penix, O/U 29.5 Pass Attempts

The Falcons will try to protect their rookie this week, much like they did last week vs. the Giants. Establishing the run will be the focus of the offense, with enough passing to keep the Commanders' defense (which happens to be one of the best pass defenses in the league) honest.

Penix had 27 pass attempts last week. Teams have been attempting 28.5 per game on the Commanders this season and 32.3 in the last three. If Cousins was still at QB, I'd expect Atlanta to be closer to 32 attempts than 28 -- but not Penix.

They'll play it safe with Penix again. Take the UNDER for both.

Dolphins vs. Browns

--Tyreek Hill, O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards at -114/-114

It hasn't been the kind of year we've come to expect from Hill, but with all the injury issues Miami has dealt with, it's not surprising. He's averaging 55.6 yards per game this season and has exceeded 49.5 yards in three of his last six games.

But the Dolphins are still alive for the playoffs and are facing a Browns defense giving up 157.7 yards per game to wide receivers this season. Other pass-happy teams like the Broncos (Week 13) and Bengals (Week 16) saw their wide receivers combine for 200-plus.

Take the OVER.

Giants vs. Colts

--Jonathan Taylor, O/U 102.5 Rushing Yards at -115/-115 (via DraftKings)

--Taylor O/U 22.5 Rushing Attempts at -110/-110 (via DraftKings)

Taylor carried the ball 29 times for 218 yards last week vs. Tennessee, but 135 yards came on two carries. Expecting similar numbers would be unrealistic.

But as long as the Colts decide to abuse the Giants' 31st-ranked run defense rather than (try to) establish the pass, good things will happen.

Taylor has had at least 21 attempts each time the Colts have won while he was healthy this season. As bad as the Giants' run defense is, it makes sense to feed Taylor the ball 25 times.

Take the OVER for both.

Cowboys vs. Eagles

--Saquon Barkley, O/U 111.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

With Jalen Hurts out this week, the Eagles will likely focus on establishing the run with Barkley to take pressure off Kenny Pickett. It didn't result in a win last week against the Commanders, but Washington is a better team than the Cowboys this year.

Dallas has held teams to an average of 89.3 yards over their last three games. But the Eagles are playing at home and have a chance to lock up the division with a win. With Barkley and the defense leading the way, they'll get the job done.

Take the OVER.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

Bender's DFS Pickem Plays: Week 17

Player Notes
Jerome Ford Dec 27 8:10pm CT
Jerome Ford

Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford has shown a penchant for big plays of late, ripping off a 62 and a 66-yard run over his past two games. He will look to stay hot at home against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The Dolphins have been solid against fantasy running backs this season, allowing just the 20th-most fantasy points per game to the position. That being said, Ford has shown himself to be dangerous in the passing game and the Browns should skew run-heavy with Dorian Thompson-Robinson slated to make the start. Treat Ford as a mid-range RB2 heading into Week 17 against Miami.

From RotoBaller

Jalen McMillan Dec 27 8:10pm CT
Jalen McMillan

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan has finally decided to show up during the final stretch of the regular season. The rookie wideout hauled in five of his seven targets for 57 yards during last week's loss to the Dallas Cowboys. McMillan has finished with four receptions or more while surpassing 55 receiving yards in each of his last three games. The Bucs are down a few wideouts, so expect McMillan and Mike Evans to see plenty of targets against the Carolina Panthers this weekend. The rookie wideout has scored four touchdowns over his last three games. He has clearly become a viable red-zone option for this team. Fantasy managers should consider McMillan a WR3 for this Week 17 matchup.

From RotoBaller

Michael Pittman Jr. Dec 27 8:10pm CT
Michael Pittman Jr.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is coming off of a quiet showing in Week 16, catching just two of three targets for 19 yards, however, outside of teammate Josh Downs, all Colts pass catchers suffered in last week's matchup as Anthony Richardson completed just seven passes on the day with Jonathan Taylor doing all of the heavy lifting for the offense. Prior to that game, Pittman Jr. had no less than seven targets or five receptions in four consecutive contests heading into Week 16. This Sunday, the Colts are eight-point favorites against the Giants who have been tough against wide receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs on the season, but have been bottom third in the league in yielding production to RBs, so look for the offense to run through Taylor again. There is also uncertainty as to who will be under center for the Colts as Anthony Richardson (back, foot) missed practice all week, so it could be veteran Joe Flacco in his stead. With Flacco at QB earlier this season, the numbers indicate Downs was the 39-year-old's preferred target. As such, regardless of who is throwing the ball, Pittman Jr. projects as a risky Flex play this week with fantasy championships on the line.

From RotoBaller

Sam LaPorta Dec 27 8:10pm CT
Sam LaPorta

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is a strong play in Week 17 when his team lines up against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. The second-year pro began the year dreadfully slow but has come around of late. LaPorta had not earned more than six targets in a game this season until Week 14 and has now done so each week since. Additionally, he's recorded four or more receptions in all three games -- something he'd done just three times prior this season. He'll get a tough outing this week in a San Francisco defense that's allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends (9.1). Still, the Iowa alum has received more work recently and is the TE3 in PPR formats since Week 14. Fire him up as RotoBaller's PPR TE5 ahead of this week's slate of action.

From RotoBaller

Mike Evans Dec 27 8:00pm CT
Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is coming off a five-catch performance against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Fantasy managers were probably hopeful for more from Evans who finished with five receptions on eight targets for 69 yards in the loss. The veteran wideout has been busy since returning from injury. Evans has finished with 68 receiving yards or more in every game since Week 12. The 31-year-old gets a plus-matchup in Week 17 against the Carolina Panthers defense. A secondary that allowed him to torch them for 118 yards on eight receptions and one score during their last meeting. Fantasy managers should consider Evans a low-end WR1 for this game.

From RotoBaller

Rachaad White Dec 27 7:50pm CT
Rachaad White

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was barely involved on the ground during last week's loss to the Dallas Cowboys. White only rushed the ball three times for 10 yards, but he salvaged his fantasy value in PPR formats by hauling in seven of his eight targets for 50 yards. Fellow back Bucky Irving isn't going anywhere as he continues to impress on the ground. That being said, the two of them should continue splitting up the carries going forward. White has looked better on the ground lately with 64 yards or more in three of his last four games. Despite that, White shouldn't be trusted as anything more than a flex option for the Week 17 matchup against the Carolina Panthers.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Dec 27 7:40pm CT
Aaron Rodgers

Forty four, 42, and 21. That's how many points the Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered in the last three weeks. Twenty one doesn't seem bad on paper, but it came against a bottom-dwelling New England offense that averages 17 points per game. The secondary has struggled to keep a lid on opposing passing games. This week, the Bills host the New York Jets, who average 19.5 points per game. Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers takes a handful of sacks (2.2) per game. In their initial matchup in Week 6, the Bills sacked Rodgers three times and picked him off. The Bills are ranked as a top D/ST this week but come with risk given their recent play.

From RotoBaller

Bucky Irving Dec 27 7:40pm CT
Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving has given fantasy managers something to smile about during the second half of the season. The rookie back has emerged as the top option in this backfield over the last few weeks. In fact, Irving has 68 rushing yards or more in five of his last six games. During that span, Irving has also found the end zone four times. He continues to split up the carries with Rachaad White, but that hasn't stopped Irving from producing solid fantasy value. He should continue to succeed in Week 17 against a Carolina Panthers defense that he rushed for 152 yards against in Week 13. Fantasy managers should go ahead and plug in Irving as a high-end RB2 for this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Baker Mayfield Dec 27 7:30pm CT
Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield continued his excellent season during last week's loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Mayfield threw for over 300 yards for the fifth time this season. He also tossed two touchdowns which now gives him nine total touchdowns over his last three games. Now, Mayfield heads into a plus-matchup against the Carolina Panthers defense in Week 17. Mayfield has been a strong QB1 over the last three games. Fantasy managers should continue to ride with him into the fantasy championship games this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Amari Cooper Dec 27 7:00pm CT
Amari Cooper

A midseason trade to Buffalo was supposed to save wide receiver Amari Cooper from the inept Cleveland offense. Instead, the veteran is an afterthought in a high-powered offense. Cooper has three or fewer targets in five of seven games as a Bill and has totaled one catch for 10 yards in his last two contests. He hasn't played more than 55% of Buffalo's offensive snaps yet. Given the Jets are stingy against outside wide receivers, Cooper shouldn't be considered for starting lineups this weekend.

From RotoBaller

Keon Coleman Dec 27 7:00pm CT
Keon Coleman

Just as he was beginning to emerge as Buffalo's top wide receiver, a wrist injury sidelined Keon Coleman for four weeks. The rookie has been quiet since his return. Coleman has a pair of targets and one reception in each of his last two games. While one went for 64 yards against Detroit, Coleman mustered 17 yards in the win over New England. There are too many mouths to feed in Buffalo as the coaching staff rotates receivers and running backs into the game. Because of the uncertain volume and difficult matchup against the Jets (third-fewest fantasy points to receivers), it's difficult to insert the second-round pick into starting lineups in Week 17.

From RotoBaller

Dalton Kincaid Dec 27 7:00pm CT
Dalton Kincaid

Since his return from injury, Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) has seen consistent usage. In Weeks 15 and 16, the second-year professional earned seven targets and caught four. Unfortunately, it hasn't translated to fantasy football success. Kincaid tallied 53 yards against Detroit but just 15 in the home win over New England. Kincaid leads tight ends in unrealized air yards and often just secures short-area throws. Kincaid continues to appear on the injury report with his knee issue but does not have an injury designation. The Jets have given up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, making the already disappointing Kincaid a shaky option for fantasy lineups this weekend.

From RotoBaller

James Cook Dec 27 6:50pm CT
James Cook

Outside of the 42-44 shootout loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills running back James Cook has seen consistent usage in November and December. Cook has averaged 14.4 touches per game since Week 9 and has 14 or 15 touches in four of the last five games. While fantasy managers would like that number to be higher, the 25-year-old has been efficient with his opportunities. He's topped triple-digit rushing yards in three of the last four games and draws a Jets defense that is weaker against the run than the pass. Cook's ranked as a high-end RB2 and should be a lineup lock for fantasy championship weekend.

From RotoBaller

Khalil Shakir Dec 27 6:50pm CT
Khalil Shakir

On paper, the New York Jets are stingy against opposing wide receivers, especially in fantasy football. The Jets allow the third-fewest fantasy points per game. However, a closer look shows the unit gives up the second-most points per game to slot receivers. Buffalo Bills receiver Khalil Shakir has lined up inside on over 70% of his offensive snaps this season. He's also been a model of consistency, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but three games. Fantasy managers wanting a safe floor can start Shakir this weekend as a mid-tier WR 3.

From RotoBaller

Josh Allen Dec 27 6:40pm CT
Josh Allen

Every player has their off games. Look no further than Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (elbow/shoulder). The favorite to win MVP racked up 93.2 fantasy points in Weeks 15 and 16, plus over 20 in nine straight games. That made his dud against New England (184 total yards and one touchdown) even more surprising. Allen noted that he suffered an elbow contusion against the Patriots but does not carry an injury designation into the weekend. Allen should return to form against another divisional foe, the New York Jets. While New York's defense is just outside the top 10 for fewest fantasy points allowed to the position, they've surrendered the second-most rushing touchdowns (seven) to quarterbacks. If a fantasy manager survived Allen's disappointing stat line from a week ago, they shouldn't be shy about starting him again. Allen is a clear-cut QB1 for Week 17.

From RotoBaller

Drew Lock Dec 27 6:30pm CT
Drew Lock

New York Giants quarterback Drew Lock (shoulder) upgraded to a full practice session on Friday and was removed from the final injury report for Week 17 against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Even though the Colts have been a strong matchup for opposing QBs this year -- they've allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the position through 15 games played -- we seriously hope that no fantasy managers in superflex leagues are having to resort to using Lock as their QB2 with a championship on the line. The 28-year-old threw two more interceptions (both were returned for touchdowns) in last week's blowout loss to the Atlanta Falcons and he just has not been good in a starting role for the G-Men let go of Daniel Jones. Lock has completed a career-low 52.7% of his pass attempts with one TD and four picks in his six games (three starts). He can run a little bit, but Lock should be avoided if at all possible.

From RotoBaller

Isaac Guerendo Dec 27 6:20pm CT
Isaac Guerendo

San Francisco 49ers rookie running back Isaac Guerendo (foot, hamstring) was limited in practice for the second straight day this week on Friday. Guerendo, who did not play in the Week 16 loss to the Miami Dolphins, may need to upgrade to a full practice on Saturday to avoid carrying a questionable designation into Monday night's Week 17 showdown in what will be a rematch of last year's NFC Championship against the Detroit Lions. If the 24-year-old back is feeling good enough to play on Monday, he should return to lead-back duties for San Fran, albeit in a bad matchup. Although they are pretty banged up now, the Lions defense has allowed the fourth-fewest half-PPR points per game to RBs in 15 games in 2024. However, in the last five weeks, they've been in the middle of the pack in that same category. If Guerendo is active in Week 17, he'll be a low-end RB2/high-end RB3/flex in fantasy.

From RotoBaller

Adam Thielen Dec 27 6:20pm CT
Adam Thielen

Carolina Panthers veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen (hamstring) was added to the Week 17 injury report on Thursday after putting in a limited session. Thielen was again limited in Friday's practice but was removed from the final injury report and will play on Sunday against the division-rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even if rookie Xavier Legette (hip, wrist) returns to the field, Thielen should continue to be quarterback Bryce Young's top target in the passing game. The Buccaneers defense has been a top-10 fantasy matchup for receivers in 2024, allowing 2,383 receiving yards and 15 total touchdowns in 15 games. The 34-year-old is no longer in his prime like he was in Minnesota, but he's developed a strong chemistry with Young the last two years and caught his third touchdown of the year in the Week 16 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Thielen has a solid floor as a WR3/flex in Week 17 in fantasy lineups.

From RotoBaller

Malik Nabers Dec 27 6:10pm CT
Malik Nabers

New York Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers (toe) is listed as questionable for Week 17 against the visiting Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but head coach Brian Daboll is "hopeful" that the 21-year-old first-rounder out of LSU will play. Nabers didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday but returned to a limited session on Friday. The impressive first-year wideout has dealt with his fair share of nagging injuries in his first year in the NFL, but he's only missed two games due to a concussion. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said that Nabers looked good in practice on Friday and is expected to play this weekend. Fantasy managers will want to check back for confirmation on Sunday morning that he's active, but if he is, as is expected, he should be left in lineups on championship week as a WR2 with WR1 upside against the Colts.

From RotoBaller

Raheem Mostert Dec 27 5:50pm CT
Raheem Mostert

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert has had an up-and-down year in 2024. Before Miami's Week 9 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, he was considered an essential part of the ground game. Since the crucial fumble the week prior, he has received 34 touches, with the backfield touches dominated by fellow back De'Von Achane. In Week 17, he and the Dolphins will travel to take on the Cleveland Browns in a matchup where the weather conditions will play a factor in the game plan. With rain and harsh winds in the forecast, the play calling could favor the run heavily. That said, it remains tough to trust Mostert with the few opportunities he's had. He's best left on the bench for championship week.

From RotoBaller