Week 15 TNF: Falcons-Buccaneers Preview, Props, Prediction
Thu Dec 11 5:39pm ET
Field Level Media
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers suddenly find themselves in desperate need of a victory when the Atlanta Falcons visit to kick off Week 15 in the NFL on Thursday night.
Upset by New Orleans last week, Tampa Bay is now tied atop the NFC South at 7-6 with the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the 4-9 Falcons are trying to reverse a skid that has seen Atlanta drop seven of its past eight games.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Bucs are consensus 5.5-point favorites. That includes at BetMGM, where Tampa Bay has been backed by 78% of the spread-line bets and 63% of the money. The Bucs' -225 moneyline has been even more popular, drawing 67% and 87% of the action, respectively.
The total points line at the book has shifted from 44.5 to 44.0, with the Over supported by 56% of the bets and 61% of the money.
PROP PICKS
--Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): Robinson caught just two passes for 8 yards in Seattle last week but has generally been an integral part of the Falcons' passing game with 602 receiving yards this season. Before the Seahawks game, Robinson had at least 37 receiving yards nine times this season, and at least 39 in eight of those. This is the most popular player prop at the book for this matchup.
--Bucs RB Bucky Irving 3+ Receptions (-178 at DraftKings): Irving has a pair of catches in both games since returning from a seven-game absence. However, he had 4+ catches in each of his four games before getting injured and his workload figures to only increase. Larger potential payouts are available for 4+ (+106) and 5+ (+252) receptions.
INSIDE EDGE
Falcons running backs have averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season, second best in the NFL, according to Inside Edge's Remarkable engine. Meanwhile, the Bucs are second-worst in the league in allowing an average of 11.5 yards after catch per reception to running backs.
KEY STAT
In two outings since injuring his left shoulder, Bucs quarterback Mayfield is averaging just 158 passing yards per game and completed a season-low 46.7% (14 of 30) of his passes against the Saints. The veteran quarterback isn't using the injury as an excuse, but understands the offense needs to find a rhythm. The Buccaneers are averaging just 15.7 points across their last three games.
"It's the little things," Mayfield said of what needs improvement. "Whether it's me being on time with my footwork, getting the protection aligned, the depths of the routes, it all comes down to executing. It's not just one thing you can point to, it's a culmination of things. We'll get it fixed."
THEY SAID IT
--"For me, that's the cost of doing business. You don't put yourself in positions to worry about those things. As a leader, you've got to stand up in front of people and answer the hard questions, and you've also got to stand up and be a good example for your guys in how you go and finish things." --Falcons coach Raheem Morris on questions about his job status
--"I think saying things has merit. I think doing things has probably more merit. It's more about how you practice, how you prepare, how you play on Thursday night is really what it comes down to." --Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has thrown for 192 yards per game in four starts in place of the injured Michael Penix Jr. The oldest player in the Atlanta locker room, Cousins acknowledges the need for a vocal leader during the team's rough stretch, but also knows the on-field performance is paramount.
INJURY REPORT
Falcons wide receiver Drake London hasn't played since Nov. 16 as he deals with a knee injury. London was a non-participant all week in practice and ruled out on Wednesday.
Tight end Kyle Pitts (knee), edge rusher Jalon Walker (quad) and defensive linemen Brandon Dorlus (groin) and David Onyemata (foot) were listed as questionable on Wednesday.
Mayfield could benefit from the return of six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans. He has been out with a broken collarbone since Oct. 20 but the Bucs activated Evans from injured reserve on Wednesday along with wide receiver Jalen McMillan, who has yet to play this season because of a neck injury sustained in an Aug. 26 preseason game.
Evans and McMillan were listed as questionable to play, while tight end Cade Otton (knee) and safety Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder) are doubtful and linebacker SirVocea Dennis (hip) and safety Rashad Wisdom (quad) were ruled out for Thursday's game.
PREDICTION
Mayfield has struggled since injuring his shoulder and is playing on a short week. But he's doing it against a reeling Falcons team, with the Bucs at home and getting some reinforcements in their passing game. --Bucs 23, Falcons 20
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The Paur Report
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. caught 11 of his 12 targets for 166 yards and three touchdowns during Thursday's Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Pitts turned in the best game of his career, showing flashes of why the Falcons made him the No. 4 pick back in 2021. The 25-year-old had just one touchdown this season prior to Thursday, and he hadn't exceeded more than 90 yards in a game yet. He shattered both of those marks in the win, and he also registered the first double-digit catch total of his career. While Pitts probably won't replicate this breakout game every week, it's encouraging to see that he's capable of producing such a superstar-caliber performance. He firmly ranks in the mid-to-high TE1 tier ahead of Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 30 of his 44 pass attempts for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions during Thursday's Week 15 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He also took one sack and recovered his own fumble. Cousins led five scoring drives on Thursday, including the game-winner with less than two minutes left to play. The veteran quarterback shook off the old narrative that he's incapable of thriving in the primetime slot, and in doing so, he kicked off his candidacy for the top-scoring fantasy quarterback in Week 15. It's unlikely that many managers started Cousins in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, but his big game could be enough to justify deploying him as a fringe top-12 fantasy option heading into a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals next week.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Dont'e Thornton Jr. (concussion) upgraded to a full participant in practice on Thursday. He had previously opened the week in a limited capacity. It appears that Thornton is trending in the right direction to clear concussion protocol and play in Sunday's Week 15 contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. The 23-year-old has been underwhelming in his first NFL season, even after teammate Jakobi Meyers was traded away. He ranks as the overall WR138 in PPR leagues with 25 targets, eight catches, and 123 yards so far this year. Even if he's confirmed as active on Sunday, Thornton can be avoided in all fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks tight end Elijah Arroyo (knee) missed a second consecutive practice on Thursday. The rookie is trending in the wrong direction ahead of Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts, and he'd likely need to get on the field in some capacity on Friday to have any shot at playing on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks invested a second-round pick in Arroyo this year, but he has consistently operated in the No. 2 tight end role behind A.J. Barner. He has just 15 catches, 179 yards, and one touchdown in his rookie campaign, ranking as the overall TE53 in PPR leagues. Assuming Arroyo doesn't play this week, the Seahawks could activate Eric Saubert (calf) from injured reserve to back up Barner against the Colts.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer (ankle) was a full participant in practice on Thursday. This was an upgrade for the backup tight end after he logged a limited practice session on Wednesday. Mayer is working his way back from a two-game absence, and it looks like he should suit up against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, barring any sort of setback. The 24-year-old is one of the better backup tight ends in the NFL, but he still doesn't handle enough volume in his role behind Brock Bowers to justify starting him in fantasy football. To make matters worse, Mayer will likely be catching passes from Kenny Pickett this week with Geno Smith (shoulder, back) not expected to play.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals running back Emari Demercado (ankle) remained limited for a second consecutive practice on Thursday. Demercado is working his way back from a three-game absence, and it looks like there's at least a chance that he could suit up against the Houston Texans on Sunday in Week 15. The 26-year-old was solid when healthy, amassing 182 scrimmage yards and playing more than 40% of the offensive snaps over his last two healthy games. Friday's practice will provide more clarity on his status for Week 15. Even if he does play, though, he'll have to compete for touches with Michael Carter and Bam Knight. For now, Demercado isn't a dependable running back or flex option in the fantasy football playoffs.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Darnell Washington (concussion) was a limited participant in practice on Thursday, and he remains in concussion protocol ahead of Sunday's Week 15 contest against the Miami Dolphins. Washington exited last week's game early after catching just one pass for 12 yards. He had looked solid in his nine previous contests, though, totaling 22 catches, 276 yards, and one touchdown during that span. The 24-year-old has quietly passed Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth in terms of snap count, but his fantasy production has still left a lot to be desired. He can be dropped in redraft leagues and stashed in deeper dynasty formats.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson (toe) was limited for a second consecutive practice on Thursday. He has not yet missed a game this season, and he's trending in the right direction for Week 15 given that he has been able to get on the field in some capacity for two days in a row. Johnson has impressed in his second pro season, ranking as the overall TE13 in PPR leagues with 42 catches, 456 yards, and five touchdowns. He commanded a season-high eight targets last week, but caught just three passes. Johnson takes on the Commanders this Sunday. Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2025, putting Johnson in the low-end TE1 tier for this week.
From RotoBaller
New Orleans Saints running back Devin Neal (abdomen) remained a limited participant in practice for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The rookie has handled an increased workload lately with Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle) sidelined and Kendre Miller (knee) on injured reserve. He's averaging 71.3 scrimmage yards as the starter and scored his first career touchdown last week. Kamara is trending toward missing another game, leaving Neal in line to start against the Carolina Panthers, assuming he's healthy enough to play. At this rate, Neal has a decent chance to suit up in Week 15 as long as he logs a limited or full practice on Friday. If Neal is confirmed as active and Kamara is out, the rookie will rank as a mid-to-low RB2 in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (ankle) upgraded to a full participant in practice on Thursday. He had been limited on Wednesday. The 26-year-old should play in Sunday's Week 15 contest against the New York Jets, barring any sort of setback during practice on Friday. Lawrence has played very clean football lately, amassing 473 passing yards, 41 rushing yards, four touchdowns, and zero turnovers over his last two games. He is the overall QB12 in fantasy football scoring this season and is a worthy starter in deeper leagues this week. The Jets have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, and they're the only defense that has not intercepted a pass yet this season.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets tight end Mason Taylor (neck) did not practice on Thursday in preparation for Week 15 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This was the second day in a row that the rookie tight end was sidelined. Taylor has not yet missed a game this season, but it looks like he's trending in the wrong direction for Sunday's contest in Florida. He picked up the injury last week against the Miami Dolphins when he played just 68% of the offensive snaps but still caught five of his eight targets for 51 yards. The 21-year-old ranks as the overall TE24 in PPR leagues this season, and he has been a matchup-based streamer in deeper leagues at times this season. If Taylor can't play in Week 15, Jeremy Ruckert would step up as the primary tight end in New York's Tyrod Taylor-led offense.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (left hand) was limited for a second consecutive day on Thursday. This is the same left hand injury that required surgery prior to Week 14, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Herbert continues to appear on the injury report. Given that he was able to play last Monday against the Eagles, he remains on track to play this upcoming Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. The injury clearly hindered Herbert last week as he completed just 14 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown. He also had one interception, one fumble lost, and seven sacks. On a more positive note, he did rush for 66 yards on 10 carries, perhaps because his passing ability was limited by the left hand injury. We should expect a similar performance from Herbert in Week 15. He has dropped to the QB22 spot in RotoBaller's latest fantasy football rankings.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (foot) was limited for a second consecutive day on Thursday. McConkey is coming off a busy game in which he played 86 percent of the snaps, which was his highest mark since Week 7. Despite the increased usage, his volume was held in check as he caught just one of five targets for 12 yards. On a more positive note, he has a touchdown in every other game dating back to Week 6, so he could be a scoring threat this upcoming Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. In his last outing against Kansas City, McConkey caught six of his nine targets for 74 yards. He remains in the WR2 tier for this week. The Chiefs represent a tough matchup, but we should see plenty of pass attempts in this competitive game between two divisional foes.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (illness) was a limited participant during practice on Thursday. This was an improvement in status for McCaffrey, who missed practice entirely on Wednesday. He's trending in the right direction to play against the Tennessee Titans in Week 15, but managers should check back on Friday for additional confirmation on his status. If he's able to practice in full, he could avoid any sort of injury designation heading into the weekend. However, if he remains limited, the 49ers may list him as questionable. With that being said, the fact that McCaffrey was able to get on the field in some capacity on Thursday bodes well for his Week 15 availability. If active, he'll rank as a high-end RB1 against the Titans, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs in 2025.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) missed practice for a second consecutive day on Thursday. The veteran receiver picked up the injury in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals and ultimately played less than half of the offensive snaps. While it's not uncommon for a veteran player to sit out the first practice of the week as a precaution, it's more concerning to see Adams miss two practice sessions in a row. He'd likely need to log a limited or full practice on Friday in order to have any chance of playing against the Detroit Lions in Week 15. If active, the touchdown threat would rank as a mid-to-low WR1 in fantasy football. If he's sidelined, Tutu Atwell and Konata Mumpfield would earn more snaps as the Rams' No. 2 wide receiver behind superstar Puka Nacua. We should have more clarity on Adams' status when the Rams publish their final injury report on Friday.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant (hamstring) missed a second straight day of practice this week on Thursday and is not expected to be available to play this Sunday when the Green Bay Packers come to town. Bryant has one more day to return to practice on Friday, but as of right now, things aren't looking good for his availability this weekend. It's bad timing for the 23-year-old third-rounder out of Illinois, as he has had a bigger role in Denver's passing attack over the last three games. Bryant has been more productive than second-year wideout Troy Franklin recently, catching 12 of his 17 targets for 156 yards over the last three games. If Bryant is inactive on Sunday, which seems likely, Franklin could get back in the good graces of his fantasy managers. Big-play receiver Marvin Mims Jr. and tight end Evan Engram should see more involvement as well.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (calf) was unable to practice on Thursday due to a calf injury, according to Jon Machota of The Athletic. It's a downgrade for Ferguson, who was listed as limited in Wednesday's practice. Mid-week downgrades usually are a bad sign, so fantasy managers need to keep a close eye on the 26-year-old's status on Friday. If he is unable to play on Sunday night against the Minnesota Vikings, Luke Schoonmaker will likely be Dallas' top pass-catching tight end. Ferguson has been an excellent value pick for fantasy managers who waited to draft him, as he currently ranks as the TE2 in half-PPR points thanks to 75 catches on 90 targets for 554 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games played. Only Arizona's Trey McBride has more touchdowns than Ferguson in 2025. Fantasy managers who have been riding with Ferguson all year need to make sure they have a backup plan ready for this weekend.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton (knee), who was listed as doubtful for Week 15, has officially been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the division-rival Atlanta Falcons. Otton suffered a knee injury in the Week 14 loss to the New Orleans Saints and will miss this week's game on a short week after missing practice Monday through Wednesday. The 26-year-old's next opportunity to play will come in Week 16 versus the division-rival Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Dec. 21. With Otton sidelined on Thursday night, Payne Durham and Devin Culp figure to share snaps at the TE position for the Bucs. Fantasy managers should be looking to avoid the Bucs' TE situation with Otton out this week. Otton has recorded 46 receptions for 430 yards and no touchdowns on 66 targets through 14 weeks in 2025.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan (neck) will make his 2025 season debut in Week 15 on Thursday Night Football versus the division-rival Atlanta Falcons. McMillan was activated from Injured Reserve on Wednesday, but was listed as questionable to play this week. The 24-year-old second-year wideout suffered multiple fractures and ligament damage in his neck in a preseason game in August, but he's finally ready to contribute down the stretch for Tampa. With veteran Mike Evans (collarbone) also back for the first time since breaking his collarbone in Week 7, the Bucs' receiving corps is finally back to full strength for the first time this year. McMillan had a pretty big role in the offense to close out his rookie campaign with Chris Godwin Jr. on the shelf, and he finished with a 37-461-8 line in 13 games. However, in a crowded WR room this year and with limited snaps likely coming in his first game back, McMillan won't be a recommended fantasy play against Atlanta.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. (knee), who was listed as questionable, is officially active for the Thursday night divisional game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, according to Tori McElhaney of AtlantaFalcons.com. Pitts was expected to play all along in this one, but it's now official. The 25-year-old will have more upside for fantasy managers for at least another week, too, with receiver Drake London (knee) set to miss a fourth straight game. In the last two weeks with London sidelined with a PCL sprain in his knee, Pitts has drawn 18 targets, catching 13 of them for 172 yards. He has only one touchdown on the year, which came way back on Sept. 28, but Pitts should be one of quarterback Kirk Cousins' top targets against a Tampa defense that has allowed the 12th-most half-PPR points to TEs in the last five weeks.
From RotoBaller
